Thursday, July 17, 2014

will we crash?


The FED avoided deflation and depression in the 07–09 financial crisis by injecting liquidity into the economy by buying Treasury assets and mortgage-backed securities. they pay for these assets with reserves under a multi-billion dollar purchase program called quantitative easing (QE). this keeps interest rates around zero making low cost credit easily available. it has hurt the housing market since only perfect FICO scores and 20% down payments get mortgages and this has forced people into apartment living. The negatives of that could effect childrens education (from worse school districts) to lower incomes and credits. This low-cost liquidity is mostly used by the currently strong financial industry (with 29 of 30 US banks passing stress tests). these financial institutions lend to businesses which invest in expansion of their companies or fix their balance sheets. This accommodative monetary policy also makes it cheaper for the government to borrow encouraging fiscal extravagance. this cheap liquidity also feeds speculative investors in risky assets increasing prices that could create bubbles of irrational exuberance. A current example was mentioned by FED chairwoman janet yellens congress testimony about speculative biotech & social media stocks being overextended. We are seeing historical high Margin debt (borrowed money for security purchases). Junk bond yields (which trade inverse to their prices) are at record lows because of speculative desires, and the spread between them and investment-grade yields are very narrow. The high price of collectibles, art & wine also indicate high interest in niche investments. This exuberance was seen in the housing markets in early 2000s when housing prices sky-rocketted exponentially without substantial underlying purpose. the current fear is QE staying too loose for too long but since economic indicators show sustainable improvements QE is appropriately and slowly ending in-toe with inflation. appropriate tapering in advance of its impact in the economy is crucial since too late could put the economy back into recession. June unemployment rate of 6.1% has been achieved 6 months earlier than expected. job openings are sharply higher and wages have increased. the economy is recovering quicker than any in history after such an economic collapse and we are currently far from recession & depression. GDP (the measure of all goods & services) is expected to grow 4% next quarter vs last quarter and 5% for the year (3% real growth and 2% inflation). corporations are reporting record revenues and earnings. theyre paying strong dividends at an average of 2% but theyre borrowing cheap money to buyback their stock which hides their real earnings and is partly reason the S&P500 expected annual eps (earnings-per-share) is $120 which is 20% higher than last year. the S&P500 P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) for stocks was recently among the highest reported since 1881, currently 19.50 which is 20% above historical levels of 16. The market capitalization of US stocks compared as a fraction to our economic output has been at its highest since 2000. which is all to be expected as investors speculate in a raging bull market. bubbles only burst if we stop feeding into them. at this stage it seems early and too presumptive to assume anything outside of normal market fluctuations & corrections should occur for the remainder of this year. but if S&P500 price falls below 1900 it could correct 15% down to 1600.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

newbie webinar2

heres my 2nd webinar...if u havent already seen webinar1 i recommend u do so. all of these classes provide the highest level of instruction. i have learned from the best traders and eventually u will be an awesome trader if u put in the work too. i organized the info in specific order to best help u learn all the complexities of trading. the first webinar covered channels and this webinar covers triangle patterns. i try to put myself in the viewers shoes best i can. dont be intimidated by the content and if u have any questions about anything im always here to help. press play & good luck!

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Facebook is a dinosaur

The Facebook platform & functionality is already a dinosaur...I expect much more out of $150 billion company.... what we do on here all day is only because there's nowhere else for us to exchange with this capacity 
....but unless Facebook changes into something more advanced to further the communication level this company & website will die like myspace....

Monday, July 7, 2014

newbie webinar 1

ok guys & gals here is my 1st webinar from saturday 7/5 that i recorded. its the first of a free an ongoing series i will be teaching. if u were one of the participants in the webcast it may help u to watch over it again considering how much content was covered. if u missed it this is a great chance for u to learn the basics of support & resistance and many other things. please ask any questions u have about anything in the video. have fun and enjoy!

Thursday, June 26, 2014

GOPRO shared the love today....enjoy my vid

me to CNBC today about GPRO IPO:

"a lil heads up cnbc alot of GPRO secondary buyers like me missed the exact start of trading because at 11amET u showed simon hobbs at that bogus IPO countdown board showing an hour to launch...when it actually launched that instant......i managed to scramble and get in @ 29.23 but i couldve got a better price if i wasnt influenced by you. other than that keep up the gr8 work a fan & daily watcher ...."

Your question has been received. You should expect a response from us within 24 hours.
GPRO ipo countdown board was bogus

Question Reference # 140626-000125
Date Created: 06/26/2014 01:46 PM
Date Last Updated: 06/26/2014 01:46 PM
Status: Unresolved

[---001:000218:20051---] <>
1:59 PM (6 hours ago)

Recently you requested personal assistance from our on-line support center. Below is a summary of your request and our response. If this issue is not resolved to your satisfaction, you may reopen it within the next 7 days.
GPRO ipo countdown board was bogus

Response By Email (CNBC Customer Care) (06/26/2014 01:59 PM)
Dear CNBC Valued Customer,

Thank you for your submission to the CNBC Customer Care team.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts regarding the IPO Countdown Board and our anchor Simon Hobbs. We are committed to reviewing all feedback provided and have forwarded your comments to the appropriate team.

If you have any questions, please feel free to reply to this message and a Customer Care Representative will get back to you within 24 hours.



-CNBC Customer Care Representative

Wednesday, June 25, 2014


Largest consumer electronics company to go Public since Duracell 1991
1st cam 2009
Company has doubled revenue every year since start In 2004
Company worth 3 billion
Listing on Nasdaq who lost Facebook, box and twitter IPOs to NYSE
Sold 3.8 million cams in 2013
Has 45% camcorder mkt
Customers uploaded 3 years of vid to YouTube
$1 billion in revenues in 2013...up 87% from 2012...up 320% since 2011
2013 profits only $60 million but doubled since 2012
Sales & profits dropped In 2014 due to Spending on branding (similar to red bull)
Best selling cams in US
1/2 all sales from outside US
Will capitalize & monetize on top vid quality, software, social & content

Rapid Ratings, a risk management company that rates the financial health of companies, gave GoPro a score of 86 on a scale of zero to 100 -- a higher rating than Alibaba, another highly anticipated IPO this year, and camcorder competitors Sony, Cannon and Nikon. Rapid Ratings looks at revenue, debt service, profitability, costs and how efficiently the company is run. By comparison, Twitter earned a 19 when it went public last year.